Latest news with #French government
Telegraph
19 hours ago
- Climate
- Telegraph
Channel migrant crossings to double if Starmer crackdown fails
The number of illegal migrants crossing the Channel is forecast to double this year unless new government measures can curb the flow, independent modelling shows. The research by Richard Wood, one of Britain's top modelling forecasters, takes account of not only weather and sea conditions but also includes asylum grant rates, illegal immigration flows into Europe and dinghy size. His analysis, originally based on five years of data up to the end of 2024, has been accurate in forecasting the numbers reaching the UK so far this year based on 'favourable' weather conditions. More than 23,000 migrants have reached the UK this year, the highest in the first six months of any year since the first arrivals in 2018, which is nearly exactly what Mr Wood's good weather model predicted. He has now updated his analysis, based on the latest asylum grant rates, increasing dinghy size and immigration flows into the EU, and re-run the modelling based on weather data over the past 16 years. The data suggest that unless Sir Keir Starmer is successful in his attempt to stop the people smugglers, migrant crossings will rocket this year. The Prime Minister has negotiated a 'one in,one out' deal with the French by which illegal migrants coming to the UK will be swapped for people who are able to come here legally. If the weather is as good as it was in 2024, when there was a surge in crossings in the second half of the year, then the total number reaching the UK by the end of 2025 will be 44,628, according to Mr Wood's model. This is just below the number of migrant arrivals in 2022, the highest on record, when 45,774 migrants crossed the Channel in small boats. If, however, the weather is as bad as it was in the second half of 2023, then the total number crossing will be as low as 36,965. This would still be the second highest total on record. The data provide a benchmark against which the Government's new policy measures could be judged to establish if they have an effect on reducing the crossings. Mr Wood said: 'With the 37th UK-France Summit including various deterrent and enforcement pledges for reducing small-boat crossings, these predictions may serve as a useful benchmark against which progress can be assessed.' As well as the 'one in, one out' deal struck with Sir Keir, France is preparing to introduce tougher tactics where officers from an elite police unit will intercept the people smugglers' boats at sea within 300 metres of the coast in an attempt to stop them leaving the coast. They have also been experimenting with jet skis laying nets to snag the dinghies' propellers. Last week, Sir Keir secured a pledge from Friedrich Merz, the Germany's chancellor, that the country would introduce a new law by the end of the year to enable police to seize boats for use by people smugglers in the Channel. The model, which is currently being peer-reviewed for publication in a migration journal, draws on data from sources including the Met Office, Channel Coastal Observatory, Home Office and European Border and Coast Guard Agency. It predicts the daily number of small-boat migrant arrivals for scenarios based on weather and sea conditions, EU illegal immigration, and other factors which may have a deterrent effect. It has two parts: the first that estimates the probability of a day being 'viable', and the second that estimates the number of migrant arrivals on such viable days. Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, said: 'What we already know for sure is that 2025 to date has been the worst year in history for illegal immigrants crossing the channel – it's up 50 per cent versus last year. 'The Government's laughable claim to smash the gangs lies in tatters. Now they think that confiscating mobile phones and sending a tiny number of people to France will make a difference 'Only a removals deterrent will end this madness – where every illegal immigrant is immediately removed upon arrival to their country of origin or to a safe third country. But Yvette Cooper and Keir Starmer are too weak to do that.'
Bloomberg
6 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
French Central Bank Chief Praises Plan to Fix ‘Very Excessive Deficit'
The French government's contested plan to rein in the budget deficit goes in the right direction to tackle deep problems in public finances, the chief of the central bank said. 'The general orientation seems to go in the right direction to finally get control over our public debt while preserving economic growth,' Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said.
Zawya
6 days ago
- Business
- Zawya
France's plan to cull public holidays may not help the economy
FRANKFURT - The French government thinks the country has too many days off for its own good, but its proposal to cull some public holidays may not produce much of an economic benefit. Prime Minister Francois Bayrou has proposed scrapping two of the country's 11 public holidays as part of a deeply unpopular emergency plan to plug a budget hole. In his sights is Easter Monday and one of four bank holidays in May, a month Bayrou compared to Gruyère cheese for its many holes. Bayrou's idea is that working two extra days will generate more economic output and therefore revenues for the government. Recent experience from elsewhere and various economic studies suggest it won't be as simple as that. In 2023 Denmark abolished Great Prayer Day, a Christian holiday that fell on the fourth Friday after Easter and dated back to 1686, to great popular discontent. On the surface, the sacrifice paid off. The number of hours worked by the average Dane fell by less than in previous years, according to Danske Bank. Yet when it comes to economic output, which is what matters for public finances, the impact of the extra day was tiny at between 0.01% and 0.06%, according to IMF estimates. France's statistical agency INSEE put the boost to GDP of Bayrou's proposal at a similarly negligible 0.06%. This is because time off is not all bad. Of course it slows down production, particularly for manufacturing companies. But it is also considered key for mental and physical health, and typically proves a boost to sectors like tourism. LEISURE CAN BE AN ECONOMIC BOOST In fact, economic studies find that output increases along with the number of national holidays - but only up to a point. One study of 101 countries by the Centre for Future Labour Market Studies in Malaysia put that sweet spot at nine or 10 public closures in a year. "As the number of public holidays increases, initially economic growth increases, but after some optimal point, when the number of public holidays increases further, economic growth starts to decline," the researchers said in the 2023 study. The exact number may depend on the make-up of a country's economy. A study of the Italian economy, which like the French is dominated by services and has on average 12 public holidays in a year, found that economic output did not vary or even slightly increased in years with more closures, indicating it was close to its own sweet spot. "Companies have fixed production targets and work around holidays," said author Francesco Maria Esposito, an assistant professor at the Birmingham Business School. The situation was similar in Germany, where the calendar is set by the 16 states and ranges from 10 to 13 holidays. The Dusseldorf-based Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK) found that German states that introduced a public holiday more often than not experienced stronger economic growth than those that cut one. "The equation 'fewer holidays equals more growth' simply does not hold up," said Sebastian Dullien, IMK's scientific director. Portugal scrapped four public holidays at the height of its debt crisis in 2012 -- only to reinstate them four years later. (Additional reporting by Maria Martinez in Berlin and Leigh Thomas in Paris Editing by Mark John and Frances Kerry)
Yahoo
7 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Analysis-France's plan to cull public holidays may not help the economy
By Francesco Canepa FRANKFURT (Reuters) -The French government thinks the country has too many days off for its own good, but its proposal to cull some public holidays may not produce much of an economic benefit. Prime Minister Francois Bayrou has proposed scrapping two of the country's 11 public holidays as part of a deeply unpopular emergency plan to plug a budget hole. In his sights is Easter Monday and one of four bank holidays in May, a month Bayrou compared to Gruyère cheese for its many holes. Bayrou's idea is that working two extra days will generate more economic output and therefore revenues for the government. Recent experience from elsewhere and various economic studies suggest it won't be as simple as that. In 2023 Denmark abolished Great Prayer Day, a Christian holiday that fell on the fourth Friday after Easter and dated back to 1686, to great popular discontent. On the surface, the sacrifice paid off. The number of hours worked by the average Dane fell by less than in previous years, according to Danske Bank. Yet when it comes to economic output, which is what matters for public finances, the impact of the extra day was tiny at between 0.01% and 0.06%, according to IMF estimates. France's statistical agency INSEE put the boost to GDP of Bayrou's proposal at a similarly negligible 0.06%. This is because time off is not all bad. Of course it slows down production, particularly for manufacturing companies. But it is also considered key for mental and physical health, and typically proves a boost to sectors like tourism. LEISURE CAN BE AN ECONOMIC BOOST In fact, economic studies find that output increases along with the number of national holidays - but only up to a point. One study of 101 countries by the Centre for Future Labour Market Studies in Malaysia put that sweet spot at nine or 10 public closures in a year. "As the number of public holidays increases, initially economic growth increases, but after some optimal point, when the number of public holidays increases further, economic growth starts to decline," the researchers said in the 2023 study. The exact number may depend on the make-up of a country's economy. A study of the Italian economy, which like the French is dominated by services and has on average 12 public holidays in a year, found that economic output did not vary or even slightly increased in years with more closures, indicating it was close to its own sweet spot. "Companies have fixed production targets and work around holidays," said author Francesco Maria Esposito, an assistant professor at the Birmingham Business School. The situation was similar in Germany, where the calendar is set by the 16 states and ranges from 10 to 13 holidays. The Dusseldorf-based Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK) found that German states that introduced a public holiday more often than not experienced stronger economic growth than those that cut one. "The equation 'fewer holidays equals more growth' simply does not hold up," said Sebastian Dullien, IMK's scientific director. Portugal scrapped four public holidays at the height of its debt crisis in 2012 -- only to reinstate them four years later. (Additional reporting by Maria Martinez in Berlin and Leigh Thomas in ParisEditing by Mark John and Frances Kerry) Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Reuters
7 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
France's plan to cull public holidays may not help the economy
FRANKFURT, July 16 (Reuters) - The French government thinks the country has too many days off for its own good, but its proposal to cull some public holidays may not produce much of an economic benefit. Prime Minister Francois Bayrou has proposed scrapping two of the country's 11 public holidays as part of a deeply unpopular emergency plan to plug a budget hole. In his sights is Easter Monday and one of four bank holidays in May, a month Bayrou compared to Gruyère cheese for its many holes. Bayrou's idea is that working two extra days will generate more economic output and therefore revenues for the government. Recent experience from elsewhere and various economic studies suggest it won't be as simple as that. In 2023 Denmark abolished Great Prayer Day, a Christian holiday that fell on the fourth Friday after Easter and dated back to 1686, to great popular discontent. On the surface, the sacrifice paid off. The number of hours worked by the average Dane fell by less than in previous years, according to Danske Bank. Yet when it comes to economic output, which is what matters for public finances, the impact of the extra day was tiny at between 0.01% and 0.06%, according to IMF estimates. France's statistical agency INSEE put the boost to GDP of Bayrou's proposal at a similarly negligible 0.06%. This is because time off is not all bad. Of course it slows down production, particularly for manufacturing companies. But it is also considered key for mental and physical health, and typically proves a boost to sectors like tourism. In fact, economic studies find that output increases along with the number of national holidays - but only up to a point. One study of 101 countries by the Centre for Future Labour Market Studies in Malaysia put that sweet spot at nine or 10 public closures in a year. "As the number of public holidays increases, initially economic growth increases, but after some optimal point, when the number of public holidays increases further, economic growth starts to decline," the researchers said in the 2023 study. The exact number may depend on the make-up of a country's economy. A study of the Italian economy, which like the French is dominated by services and has on average 12 public holidays in a year, found that economic output did not vary or even slightly increased in years with more closures, indicating it was close to its own sweet spot. "Companies have fixed production targets and work around holidays," said author Francesco Maria Esposito, an assistant professor at the Birmingham Business School. The situation was similar in Germany, where the calendar is set by the 16 states and ranges from 10 to 13 holidays. The Dusseldorf-based Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK) found that German states that introduced a public holiday more often than not experienced stronger economic growth than those that cut one. "The equation 'fewer holidays equals more growth' simply does not hold up," said Sebastian Dullien, IMK's scientific director. Portugal scrapped four public holidays at the height of its debt crisis in 2012 -- only to reinstate them four years later.
